The April 2 tariffs carry potential upside—but represent high-difficulty maneuvers with a narrow margin for success.

Our base case sees the era of free trade ending, with flat to modestly negative growth and 2025 U.S. equity returns between -5% and +5%, but with downside risks from prolonged uncertainty.

We see a slim chance of a negotiating bluff—and a slightly greater risk of a full-blown trade war.

Focus remains on active management, opportunistic risk-taking, and quality, income, and global exposures to capitalize on valuation dislocations.